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ETS2 is the EU's second Emissions Trading System: from 2028, suppliers of natural gas, heating oil and road-transport fuel must buy allowances for the CO2 their fuel produces — a cost they pass through into the price you pay per cubic metre or per litre, the same way excise duty already works.
To be clear, this is not the same scheme that power plants and heavy industry already pay: that one, ETS1, has existed for years and is already priced into electricity. ETS2 is new, targets building heating and road transport specifically, and is therefore relevant to any kitchen still running on gas.
Almost no restaurant owner has heard of it, and the reason is simple: everything published about ETS2 is written for industrial and transport audiences, never for hospitality. The date has also moved since it was first announced — what looked like "next year" in 2025 was pushed back by a full year in November 2025. This guide gives you three numbers, a timeline and a calculator to plan around it calmly, with nothing you need to act on today.
The timeline: from monitoring to paying
The timeline: from monitoring to paying
Four dates worth remembering — the start date has since moved a full year later than originally planned
Fuel suppliers start measuring and reporting their CO2 output in preparation — nothing is charged yet this year.
This was the date ETS2 was meant to actually begin. That date has since been abandoned.
In November 2025, EU institutions agreed to push the real start back by one year to 2028 — with a further safeguard if energy prices in 2026 stay exceptionally high.
A price cap limits the shock in the early years; by around 2030 the scheme is further phased in and the market price is reassessed.
The one thing worth remembering: 2027 is no longer the start date — that is now 2028, with 2027 only still relevant as the year the price cap's own reference price is based on.
That delay is not a footnote. It came out of the wider negotiations over the EU's 2040 climate target, driven precisely by concern for the energy bills of vulnerable households and small businesses — exactly the group an independent restaurant sits in. In other words: you have gained a year to prepare for this, not lost one.
The ultimate guide Restaurant Finance: 6 Numbers That Decide Your Profit From VAT rates to break-even: everything you need to keep your restaurant financially healthy, in one guide. Open the guideThe three numbers worth remembering
Forget the fine print of the EU regulation. Remember these three numbers, and remember above all that they are estimates, not a quote from your supplier — the actual price you pay depends on national taxes, your own contract and how the market develops in the meantime.
The market price independent analysts expect
A price cap around €59 per tonne (in 2027 prices) is built in to limit shocks in the early years. Where the real market price lands inside that range, nobody knows today — it is an estimate, not a fixed rate.
The estimated impact by around 2030
The further out you look, the less certain the figure — this is analysts' estimate for once the scheme is fully phased in, not a percentage that applies tomorrow.
What it could cost your suppliers and your own delivery vans
This does not touch your kitchen, but it does touch the diesel price for your own deliveries and any fuel surcharge a supplier may pass on.
Worth noting: electricity is deliberately absent from this list. Power already sits under ETS1, the older, first emissions trading system for power plants, so ETS2 adds no new, separate cost line for electricity. A kitchen running entirely on induction does not escape every carbon price out there — but it does escape this specific one.
Work out what it could mean for your kitchen
Enter your current annual spend on natural gas or heating oil and pick a scenario. You will not get an exact figure — nobody can honestly give you one today — but you will get a range to put in your longer-term planning, plus the number for the scenario you think is most likely.
What could ETS2 mean for your gas bill?
Enter your own figure — the result is a range, not an exact price
Estimated range per year from 2028 (5–15%)
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Your chosen scenario
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An equivalent kitchen running fully on induction would not pick up this specific cost line — electricity already sits under ETS1 and carries its own separate price history, unrelated to this mechanism.
Remember this range applies from 2028, not from tomorrow, and that your own supplier, your national taxes and the real market price will decide the exact figure. What you can take from it: an order of magnitude to drop into your own cash-flow plan, well before the cost actually lands.
What to actually do about it now
This is a multi-year heads-up, not an emergency. The earliest start date is 2028, so nothing needs signing or replacing today. What genuinely is worth doing:
- Time your next equipment refresh around the timeline, not against it. If a stove, fryer or boiler is already due for replacement in the next three to five years, this is the moment to weigh induction against gas with this extra cost line included in the sums — not a reason to rip out working equipment before 2028.
- Ask your own supplier how they plan to pass the cost through. Some will spread it across the year, others will fold it into an annual tariff review. That is a question you can ask today, at no cost to you.
- Put the figure from the calculator above into your multi-year budget, alongside your other energy costs — not as a bill landing tomorrow, but as a line that can grow from 2028 onward.
- Watch for national subsidy programmes. Part of ETS2's own revenue flows back into social and climate funds at EU and member-state level, and several countries will likely attach small-business support schemes to it. Our guide to subsidies and de-minimis aid shows how to map what already exists.
- Consider solar not because of ETS2, but as part of the same picture. If you are already investing in less dependence on fossil fuel, every euro you take off the grid also counts against a rising electricity price. Run the numbers in our guide to solar panel payback time.
- Ask about a multi-year, fixed-price energy contract. Locking in a rate now, before the ETS2 surcharge is priced in, spreads the transition out instead of absorbing it in one jump the moment the scheme starts.
- Look at your own delivery vans too. A few cents to fifteen cents per litre adds up quickly over a fleet's annual mileage — smarter route planning, tyre pressure and driving habits will pay a little more per litre once that surcharge is in place.
Conclusion: a number to plan for, not a fire to put out
ETS2 is not a crisis landing on your doormat tomorrow. It is a figure you will start seeing on your gas or heating-oil bill from 2028, somewhere between a few percent and fifteen percent, with a secondary effect on the fuel price for your own delivery vans and your suppliers'. The right response is neither panic nor ignoring it, but simply folding it into your next kitchen refit, your next energy contract and your multi-year budget — exactly the way you already handle excise duty and VAT.
Sight of your own numbers starts with an overview: a reservation system that keeps your covers, your revenue and your fixed costs in one place tells you faster what a rising energy bill genuinely does to your margin. Read the ultimate guide to restaurant finance or try HappyChef free for 30 days.